Economic Crisis Update

Luckily the Chancellor Gordon Brown and the Deputy Chancellor Alistair Darling have kept on top of events since, led from the front and not looked like rabbits caught in headlights; There is no shubshitite fur eshperience ash Ghordon ofthen sheys!


A financial crisis unmatched since the Great Depression, say analysts

Guardian, London, March 18th 2008

A century after John Pierpont Morgan rescued the New York stockmarket from a 50% sell off in share prices, his blue-blooded Wall Street bank was yesterday once again at the heart of attempts to contain the deepening global financial crisis.

In an echo of the "bankers' panic" of 1907, JP Morgan responded to what is being billed as a meltdown of historic proportions by agreeing to buy its stricken rival, Bear Stearns.

The length and severity of the crisis that broke over global markets last summer has had analysts delving into their history books. George Soros, who was largely responsible for Black Wednesday, the last bout of serious financial turmoil to afflict the UK, believes there has been nothing to match the events of the past nine months since the Great Depression.

Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the Fed and the man blamed by many for setting off the boom-bust in the US housing market, agrees with the man who broke the Bank of England. Writing in the Financial Times yesterday, Greenspan said: "The current financial crisis in the US is likely to be judged as the most wrenching since the end of the second world war."

The first 25 years after the war were relatively trouble free. Britain had devalued the pound in 1949 and 1967, but the first real systemic threat to the financial system arrived in 1973 with the secondary banking crisis that affected the "fringe banks" that had provided money to speculators during the property boom. When the crash came, the Bank of England launched a "lifeboat" to prevent the crisis spreading.

Similar action by the Federal Reserve in 1998 contained the fallout from the collapse of Long Term Capital Management, a hedge fund that lost money in the aftermath of Russia's decision to default on its debts. By comparison with recent events, LTCM now seems to be a minor market wobble.

Students of the markets say the only recent parallel with the current turmoil is Japan in the 1990s, but other than that they have had to study the 1930s, when 9,000 banks failed, 1907 when JP Morgan told Wall Street enough was enough after a 50% drop in shares, and even to the series of economic and financial upheavals during the final quarter of the 19th century.

New York Fed Warns On Hedge Funds

New York Times - May 3, 2007

In what Reuters describes as its “sternest warning to date” on the state of the hedge-fund business, the New York Federal Reserve said Wednesday that the funds could represent the biggest risk for a financial crisis since 1998, when the implosion of Long-Term Capital Management threatened global markets.

“Recent high correlations among hedge fund returns could suggest concentrations of risk comparable to those preceding the hedge fund crisis of 1998,” according to a paper written by Tobias Adrian, capital markets economist at the central bank.

Regulation — or lack thereof — of the $1.4 trillion industry has become a battle ground for regulators and lawmakers. The meltdown of Long-Term Capital is often cited as a cautionary tale by those arguing for more oversight of the lightly-regulated investment pools. The crisis at Long-Term Capital took the market by surprise and resulted in The Fed forcing an unprecedented $3.6 billion bailout.

The Fed’s latest worry arose from what it described as a rising correlation between the actual returns of hedge funds, which could point to similar trading strategies that excessively concentrate risk on too few market positions.