Au revoir à l'euro?

It is not a goodtime to be one of the PIGS – Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain. Greece, Ireland and Portugal, the euro region countries that needed 256 billion Euros ($366 billion) in emergency aid to avoid default, may all see their debt loads exceed the size of their economies this year. The only one of the PIGS whose economy has not been bailed out is Spain which is arguably too big to be bailed out in any event.



However the possibility of a second Greek Bail-Out and the increasing likelihood of defaults on Sovereign Debt is threatening not just the continuation of the Eurozone but the entire European Banking System – it is estimated that UK Banks have over €88 Billion exposure in Ireland and French and German Banks over €100 Billion exposure in Greece. Moody's has placed three large French banks on negative review based on their exposure to Greek debt.



In Ireland the political opposition is building up to the IMF Bailout fuelled by resentment that the Developers, Bankers and idiot Politicians who caused the bubble in asset values are getting off scot free. Finance Dublin kicked off The Irish Government Debt Clock which was set at midnight on June 30th 2009, when it was €65.278 billion. It updates the latest figures for the National Debt of Ireland. The clock is re-set periodically, to reflect changes in debt and deficit estimates from the Dept of Finance, the National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA), and independent economists. The clock is set now at €107 Bn, an amount which would be unserviceable even if the boom had continued. For further background on what the debt figures mean click here.

http://www.financedublin.com/debtclock.php


Cheerful Hibernians in between Riverdancing

Greece’s debt, already the biggest in the euro’s history at 143 percent of gross domestic product last year, will jump to almost 158 percent this year and 166 percent in 2012, the European Commission said this week in Brussels. Portuguese debt will surpass total economic output for the first time this year, growing to 101.7 percent of GDP, while Irish debt will reach 112 percent, the forecasts show.



As European Union officials consider boosting aid for Greece a year after its 110 billion-euro bailout, today’s report shows little sign of debt levels becoming more manageable. Soaring borrowing costs have left the three nations shut out of financial markets with investors increasing bets that Greece will become the first euro member to default.



The scale of Greece's problem is simply stated: her national debt will approach 160 per cent of GDP on current trends. Here in the UK we are supposed to be in crisis because that ratio is heading for about 75 per cent.


Les porcs

The Celtic Sage takes no satisfaction in predicting as far back as 2007 that the “One size fits all” Monetary Policy would be unsustainable in the EU’s peripheral economies when I wrote;

“There is widespread and growing disquiet about the consequences of the Euro, especially as the preparations for it already seem directly responsible for rising unemployment in Europe. Some argue cogently that the regional imbalances from monetary union will be a source of conflict not harmony between states. Popular resentment about high unemployment in depressed regions and about the scale of financial transfers to them from richer states could lead to a possibly violent break-up of monetary union.”

http://daithaic.blogspot.com/2007/09/euro-opportunity-or-threat-for-britain.html

Earlier this year I pointed out the sheer impossibility of Ireland servicing its (then smaller) debt and how the election of a new brand of Gombeen Government would not make an iota of difference;




Beware of electorates carrying placards

“So the € 80 Bn Bailout equates to roundly € 55,000 for every productive worker. Add to this annual interest servicing costs of € 4,960 per annum and you get the scale of the problem, Ireland’s public and private debt is simply unsustainable. Most reconstructions, Bankruptcy and liquidations, involve substantial debt reduction, a write off of debt before you begin a fresh start. Ireland is in unrealistic denial about being able to service its Public and private debt making the hard stop of debt default inevitable sooner rather than later.”

http://daithaic.blogspot.com/2011/02/terrible-default-is-born.html

You know, sometimes it would be good to be wrong?

A terrible default is born

Congratulations to Ireland on electing a new puppet Government. The election will not reduce the interest rate on its €80bn bailout by a quarter of a percentage point; it will not diminish the burden of the deficit by so much as an old Irish Punt (the pre-euro currency which rhymed with Bank Manager). It will hang around the necks of the Irish for decades, and rest upon the shoulders of their children and their children’s children. If Gaddafi Adams is the answer then what is the question? The HUGE mistake was to guarantee not just deposits but ALL the liabilities of Irish Banks. The Hedge Fund Bondholders have been in LMAO mode ever since. Alas I had anticipated years ago that a monetary policy designed for Germany and France would make the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain) squeal and so it has come to pass;

http://daithaic.blogspot.com/2007/09/euro-opportunity-or-threat-for-britain.html



Welcome to Dublin!


Fine Gael have been swept to power on the back of a promise to renegotiate the terms of Ireland’s €80bn bailout by the European Union and International Monetary Fund. But Enda Kenny (a leader so impressive his own party tried to give him the heave 8 months ago) like all the other “believe my promises" Irish Politicos has no real power, Ireland’s sovereignty has been removed. The greatest joy is that the Greens have been totally stuffed, losing all their six seats. It's funny how it works that way. They do alright until they get a bit of power – then people realise how absolutely crap they are, and they never get another look in.



As for the Labour Party well I’ve always voted Labour in any country I’ve lived in and I know and like Eamonn Gilmore since we were both involved in the Union of Students in Ireland in the 70’s. However their economic policy has not moved much beyond the “increase taxes to eliminate poverty era.”


We'll always have Riverdance!


Lack of democratic accountability means the same austerity measures will still be imposed, exactly as they are across the euro zone. The impotence of Ireland to influence its own future will lead to bitterness and alienation. This in turn will lead to continuing dishonesty and delusion among a population for whom the “stroke” is a National Religion – this is the only country where a €78 million Euro lottery winner was found to be on benefits and working, claiming “Single Mother’s Allowance” when with a partner and having a holiday home in Turkey and was feted as a “character.” This is a country with the same population as Greater Manchester which still supports 340 Quangos full of self important, self serving popinjays getting in the way of reality. This is a country which when it became wealthy spent its money on buying itself in a huge property bubble.


You can't go wrong with land - sure they are not making any more of it!

But let us consider the nature of the Bailout and the preceding speculative Bubble and the issue of Ireland’s default becomes a “when”, not an “if.” Before the property bubble Ireland had the highest level of home ownership in the EU, at 62% way ahead of Germany, France and the Netherlands. Indeed the nearest is its near neighbour the U.K. where the “love of property” has really really been a “love of inflation.” So where does this leave property values in the short term as we enter a low inflation or possibly deflationary scenario? In the UK when residential property crashed in 1990 the average house price was 11 times average earnings. When reality hit Ireland in 2007 the average house price was an astounding 23 times average earnings. There are estimated to be 230,000 unsold new homes of which 110,000 are “holiday” homes. Add to the zombie estates, the zombie hotels built for tax breaks and without customers and the zombie developments then there are so many walking dead in the Irish property world that nobody can reliably predict future asset values or ascertain the reality of security behind current borrowings.



The Irish Independent reports today that there are 44,508 mortgages more than 3 months in arrears totalling €8.6 Bn, making each non-performing mortgage worth around € 193,000. Take the € 80 Bn Bailout Ireland has received. Ireland has a labour force of 2.2 million of which around 430,000 are currently claiming unemployment benefit of some sort. Abstract also the estimated 300,000 Public Sector workers this leaves a generous 1,470,000 workers (including those working in zombie hotels) in the wealth producing sectors of the economy. So the € 80 Bn Bailout equates to roundly € 55,000 for every productive worker. Add to this annual interest servicing costs of € 4,960 per annum and you get the scale of the problem, Ireland’s public and private debt is simply unsustainable. Most reconstructions, Bankruptcy and liquidations, involve substantial debt reduction, a write off of debt before you begin a fresh start. Ireland is in unrealistic denial about being able to service its Public and private debt making the hard stop of debt default inevitable sooner rather than later.


Fecked!

Of course the election is not all bad news - but at least we don't have to look at Cowen any more ... until he turns up again with a nice little earner, courtesy of the "colleagues". The inevitable default in the next two years will alienate a whole generation. The puppets may have changed but the same puppet master is still pulling the strings. Congratulations to Jean Claude Trichet of the European Central Bank on his election win. IMF/ECB still rules! Simples!



For an insight into the high quality leadership which has brought Ireland to such a happy place see;

Bertie Ahern and poverty in Ireland;

http://daithaic.blogspot.com/2007/12/bertie-ahern-and-poverty-in-ireland.html

The Naked Taoiseach

http://daithaic.blogspot.com/2009/03/naked-taoiseach.html

Gargelgate – A very Irish tragedy

Our very own Brian Cowen

Some years ago when the in laws retired to Co. Offaly in Ireland their TD (Member of Parliament) was a local auctioneer, Brian Cowen. Cowen was born in Clara, County Offaly, the son of May and Bernard Cowen, a former Fianna Fáil TD and Senator. The family owned a public house in Clara town, located adjacent to the family home. His father also worked as an auctioneer. Now it has been observed that languages invent words because they need them and Irish is sprinkled with words like Gombeen, “a pejorative Hiberno-English term for a shady, small-time "wheeler-dealer" or businessman who is always looking to make a quick profit, often at someone else's expense or through the acceptance of bribes”, Sleeveen “somebody who is sly, plausible, and ingratiating” or Spalpeen “a rascal.” You get the idea the Irish language had to invent these words / descriptors because it needed them, no more so than for the Irish Political Class who contain a fair proportion of Gombeen Men (and Women) who previously followed noble callings as Publicans, Auctioneers, Bookmakers or general multi-purpose shysters!


Tom Byrne's satirical depiction of Taoiseach Brian Cowen performing 'Lakes of Pontchartrain' at the Fianna Fail “Think-in” on display in the Apollo Gallery, Dublin.

Cowen became Taoiseach (Prime Minister) in May 2008 following the resignation of his predecessor Bertie Ahern after he was found to have received over £200.000 in unaccounted cash from “Benefactors.” Somewhat embarrassingly (for he was Minister of Finance for much of the time) he hadn’t accounted for tax on these “donations.” Indeed such was his faith in ready cash that he didn’t have a bank account for much of the time either! However, even if every allegation against Bertie Ahern was true it all pales into insignificance against the low standards set by his predecessor, the late Charles Haughey who, in his time, pocketed £8.4 million in “donations”. Although an Anglophobe by birth and conviction, Haughey cultivated the most elaborate tastes and mannerisms of the Anglo-Irish gentry. He had mansions, estates and a private island. He liked antique furniture, and fine art, horses, clothes and wines.


Charlie "The Squire" Haughey

Haughey’s Minister of Justice, Ray Burke, has previously been found culpable of receiving large sums of cash and indeed having his own house and its land “donated” by Brennan and McGowan, developers who benefited from wide scale rezoning of land. Liam Lawlor, another Fianna Fail T.D. (Irish Member of Parliament) was also found to have corruptly benefited from payments from developers who had agricultural land rezoned for development, often at great cost to the public purse in providing the infrastructure.


The Bold Bertie in typical heroic pose

Even squeaky clean former Prime Minister Garret FitzGerald was found to have a 320,000 pound loan from Allied Irish Bank to invest in the shares of Guinness Peat Aviation (of which he was a director) written off by the bank when the investment went wrong, as you or I would in similar circumstances. Dr. FitzGerald had previously been Prime Minister when the same bank had been bailed out to the tune of £121 million when their investment in the Insurance Corporation of Ireland went wrong.

http://daithaic.blogspot.com/2007/12/bertie-ahern-and-poverty-in-ireland.html

Since Cowen became Taoiseach the Irish economy has nose dived, its sovereign debt rating has been cut and he has launched a 4 Billion programme of cuts which has copper fastened his unpopularity. Cuts are not easy in a statist country like Ireland where Gombeen Pork Barrel politics are the order of the day. With the same population as Greater Manchester the country supports no less than 380 Quangos once again proving the truth of Brendan Behan’s saying “The Irish are very popular with themselves!”



Now to economic misery has been added National Mortification in the scandal of the allegedly drunken interview known as Gargelgate - Brian Cowen's now infamous early morning interview came five-and-a-quarter hours after he left The Blazers Bar in the Ardilaun Hotel following a night of drinking, singing and telling yarns.

It was a night typical of any party gathering, enjoyed by TDs, senators and assembled journalists. At the time, no one could have foreseen the political storm that would envelop the Taoiseach in what would become one of the most damaging episodes of his political career which has been picked up in America by Jay Leno on NBC’s Tonight Show.



US chat-show host Jay Leno says he is not going to apologise to Taoiseach Brian Cowen for mocking him as a "drunken moron" on his prime time show. Leno displayed a photo of Mr Cowen and asked his audience to guess if he was a bartender, a politician or a "nightclub comedian", before revealing he was the "Prime Minister of Ireland" to loud laughter. "He's Brian Cowen, the Prime Minister of Ireland. Oh God, it's so nice to know we're not the only country with drunken morons, isn't it?" Leno joked.

Mr Cowen has featured in the international media since it emerged he was singing and drinking in the early hours of the morning at the Fianna Fail party think-in (In itself a strange concept!) in the Ardilaun Hotel, Co Galway, two weeks ago. He was criticised for his performance on an RTE 'Morning Ireland' interview several hours later. He admitted afterwards that he needed to be more cautious in his social life but strongly denied he was drunk or hung-over during the interview.


Dublin - capital of a very free Ireland

But this national embarrassment doesn't stop even at Cowen's door – Irish State Broadcaster RTE's initial refusal to repeat the phrase 'drunken morons' proves that while Cowen can't control the antics of an NBC employee, he still holds sway over the national broadcaster.

Brian Cowen called a "drunken moron" in NBC Tonight Show segment from Sept 22, 2010



The Irish PM Brian Cowen has refuted claims that he sounded "halfway between drunk and hungover" in a radio interview.



Brian Cowen Drunk Live Radio Interview (audio slowed) before his breakfast on RTÉ News Morning Ireland, Tuesday, 14 September 2010. Taoiseach Brian Cowen drunk interview live on air.

The Naked Taoiseach

The real Brian Cowen?


Since he took over as Taoiseach (Prime Minister) of Ireland in May 2008 Brian Cowen has looked even more hapless than, well, his hapless predecessor, Bertie Ahern.
( http://daithaic.blogspot.com/2007/12/bertie-ahern-and-poverty-in-ireland.html ) This is in itself quiet a considerable achievement for the politician from Clara, Co. Offaly (where my mother’s family hail from) but the Celtic Tiger is now looking like a very sick Celtic Pussycat as the economy spirals downwards, tax receipts go though the floor, public spending is out of control and unemployment heads inexorably towards 15%. On top of that Ireland has shot itself in the foot by nationalising Anglo-Irish Bank with its toxic debt mainly on overvalued (or in some cases non-existent) property assets abroad owned in many instances by speculators linked to Brian Cowen’s Fianna Fail political party. As stories of waste, extravagance and corruption abound the public perception of Irish Politicians has hit an all time low and none has looked more impotent and naked in the face of the economic maelstrom than Brian Cowen.

Well one talented artist has taken this perception further and hung (sic) two naked portraits of the Naked Taoiseach unnoticed in empty spaces in art galleries. Two unorthodox portraits — one in the National Gallery showing the Taoiseach on the toilet, and another in the Royal Hibernian Gallery showing him holding his Y-fronts — appeared mysteriously in Dublin among paintings of the country’s other famous citizens in more decorous poses. So just who did hang the unflattering paintings of a naked Brian Cowen, the Irish Prime Minister, in the country’s most prestigious art galleries?



The Irish media speculated that the prankster had created the artworks in an attempt to lift the nation’s spirits at a time of deep economic gloom. Judging by the chuckles of visitors and comments inundating the blogosphere, the stunt worked.

“Biffo on the bog”, was one gleeful response, referring to the Taoiseach by his nickname, which stands for “Big Ignorant F***er from Offaly”. The artist reportedly walked calmly into the National Gallery carrying a shoulder bag. He then affixed a prepared caption for the picture to a free space among portraits of Michael Collins, William Butler Yeats and Bono, before hanging his canvas, undisturbed by security.

The caption read: “Brian Cowen, Politician 1960-2008. This portrait, acquired uncommissioned by the National Gallery, celebrates one of the finest politicians produced by Ireland since the foundation of the state. Following a spell at the helm of the Department of Finance during a period of unprecedented prosperity, Brian Cowen inherited the office of Taoiseach in 2008. Balancing a public image that ranges from fantastically intelligent analytical thinker to Big Ignorant F***er from Offaly, the Taoiseach proves to be a challenging subject to represent.”



One woman who saw the National Gallery portrait of the Taoiseach, pictured gripping a toilet roll in one hand, commented: “Well at least that is one mess he has been able to clear up.” The Sunday Tribune reported that the portrait of Mr Cowen wearing nothing but his glasses hung for more than an hour, with hundreds of patrons believing it to be a genuine part of the collection. After security guards removed it, police were called to examine the portrait and CCTV evidence.

The guerrilla artist, emboldened by his success, went on to hang a second portrait of the Taoiseach in the Royal Hibernian Gallery. The second naked portrait depicted a portly Mr Cowen, still in his glasses, holding a pair of blue and white pants in his left hand. One woman who saw the work was impressed enough to make an offer.

Dublin is rife with rumour about the identity of the artist. Ian Whyte, of Whyte’s Gallery, said: “It was certainly a professional job; the two paintings were both very well executed. They are actually better than the work of a few artists I thought it might be. Everyone will be talking about it until the identity is revealed.




National Gallery of Ireland

“No crime was committed; whoever it was didn’t take anything. In fact, he donated something.”

The real news however is not that this picture was hung, but the censorship afterwards. After a story was ran about it on RTE, the Irish state broadcaster, Prime Minister Cowen and his political party rang the TV Station and demanded the story be removed from the RTE website, and it was, demanded the clip of the news item be removed, and demanded an apology, which they got on air! This is a display of blatant censorship, the Irish government putting political pressure on a television station to avoid embarrassment.


A happy Irish Voter

Consider the weasel words of this verbatim report from today’s Irish Independent;

Last night, it broadcast an apology for its story about the illegal (sic)hanging of hoax nude portraits of Mr Cowen in the National Gallery and the Royal Hibernian Academy in Dublin.

"RTE News would like to apologise for any personal offence caused to Mr Cowen or his family for any disrespect shown to the office of the Taoiseach," it said. A spokesman for Mr Cowen confirmed that he had made a complaint about the story, which he said "went beyond the news values of RTE". The report described how Police were investigating who was responsible for leaving the nude paintings of Mr Cowen in the two galleries. Last night, Fianna Fail Dublin-North TD Michael Kennedy called on RTE director general Cathal Goan to "consider his position".

What a wonderful description which confirms that Ireland is still a Nation of Master Debaters; “"went beyond the news values of RTE" and showed “disrespect for the Office of Taoiseach”. This is of course the Office which Brian Cowen’s predecessor resigned from after revelations of receiving “brown envelopes” of money in pubs because his friends felt “sorry for him”, where another Fianna Fail Taoiseach Charles Haughey received £8.5 m in untaxed “gifts” which we know about. This is a country which has had 21 “tax amnesties” in 30 years and where the planning system has been shown to be systemically corrupt with back handers the order of the day. Where there are open gang shootouts most weeks with the hapless Police force reduced to bystanders and which maintains 832 free spending Quangos which squander public funds without accountability for a country with the population of say, Greater Manchester.

Never have a Taoiseach and a discredited political party looked more hapless than when engaging in this sad attempt to control the state owned News Media in a way which is more redolent of Ceausescu’s Romania towards the end. All praise indeed to the Hero Artist who has wonderfully exposed not just this blundering Taoiseach but that the entire self serving Irish Political and Economic elite are former emperors who have been exposed as wearing no clothes!


The happy Irish electorate

Bertie Ahern and Poverty in Ireland.

Poor Bertie Ahern, the Irish Taoiseach, (Prime Minister) is living proof that in spite of the economic boom in Ireland “The Celtic Tiger” which has seen Ireland transformed in the past 20 years to the economy with the second highest per capita GDP (after Luxembourg) in Europe poverty remains a pressing issue.

The Bold Bertie (as he is known to his cronies) has always presented himself as an anorak clad Man of the People staying true to his roots in the local area of Drumcondra on Dublin’s Northside where he grew up and where his father was a humble handyman at a local college for 50 years. Indeed in the past he has contrasted himself with one of his predecessors, Charles Haughey, who lived in a palatial mansion by saying he was always content to live in his unprepossessing house in Drumcondra called “All Hallows” after the college where his father
worked.


All Hallows College, Drumcondra



Imagine then the public surprise at his testimony to the “McMahon Enquiry”, a tribunal of enquiry in Ireland chaired by a High Court Judge, into alleged political corruption in Ireland that when Minister of Finance in the early 1990’s he receive substantial donations in cash from “friends” who felt sorry for him after his marriage broke up and he was living in a 2 room flat above his constituency office.

Although few regard Mr Ahern as a corrupt politician, his performance at the tribunal has been widely described as confusing and more baffling than illuminating. His testimony, which was at variance with bank records, was characterised by vagueness and claims of memory lapses. His epic interrogation, the culmination of an inquiry which has gone on for more than seven years, was unsatisfactory for the tribunal and the Taoiseach himself.

It pitted Mr Ahern – once famously described as "the most skilful, the most devious and the most cunning of them all" – in a tense contest against the cream of the Dublin legal profession. In the witness box he made no damning admissions, but nor did he succeed in clarifying to general satisfaction a convincing narrative that might explain the transactions, which totalled £68,000. Mr Ahern stuck by his assertion that he had "done nothing improper... done no wrong and wronged no one."

But his performance was described as "evasive, bewildering and confusing". As one headline summed it up: "17 hours in witness box – still no answers". A newspaper poll found that only one in three voters believed his account.

That account, and the evidence of a number of other witnesses, provided fascinating glimpses of the financial arrangements of the man who in the early 1990s was Minister for Finance and who expected to become Prime Minister.

At that time, as part of a complicated house deal, an Irish businessman told of heaping about £28,000 in cash on a table in Mr Ahern's constituency office. Mr Ahern had accepted the money, had not counted it and had shown "no particular reaction", he said. Mr Ahern testified that the money was not for him, but to do up a house which the businessman would buy and he would rent.




Fagan's Pub Exterior


Fagan's Pub Interior

In another pub, The Beaumont Arms, the owner testified that he and some friends of Bertie felt sorry for him and gave him 16,500 euros as he was quietly minding his own business and having a pint in the pub (with his ministerial Mercedes and driver parked outside) because somebody in his position “should have a proper house to live in!”

On another occasion whilst enjoying a freebie trip to Manchester to see his favourite team, Manchester United, play at Old Trafford the company at a dinner in the Four Seasons Hotel astonished him with a spontaneous whip around of 5,000 pounds and poor Bertie testified he was lost for words when this was given to him, although you may think he must have had a standard speech prepared as the unexpected had become a frequent occurrence by this stage.
The public gallery of the tribunal, held at Dublin Castle, has been packed for the past few weeks, with factions for and against Mr Ahern making their opinions evident. The occasion was viewed by some as an enthralling spectator sport. Celia Larkin, Mr Ahern's girlfriend at the time, provoked laughter in the gallery when she testified: "Bertie dealt in cash. I think he felt more comfortable with it."

In another example of his attachment to ready money, she said Mr Ahern had driven her to a bank in Dublin's O'Connell Street, waiting while she went in and withdrew £50,000. Mr Ahern testified that she had collected the money, but said he did not recall personally taking her to the bank. Such incidents were among the more accessible, and entertaining, parts of proceedings which also consisted of stretches of mind-numbing minutiae centring on five transactions. Hours were spent toiling over foreign-exchange transactions, with tribunal staff evidently suspecting that something fishy had happened. Mr Ahern was adamant he never dealt in US currency: "There were no dollars. There were never dollars. It's a complete red herring," he said. But not all of his evidence was so forthright, which means that his finances remain shrouded in uncertainty. He can also be comical. He once reputedly condemned political exchanges as "throwing white elephants and red herrings at each other".

While the practice of declining to dispel imprecision is regarded as a legitimate political ploy, past scandals involving his Fianna Fail party have been so numerous that he has previously placed on record his assertion that the public are entitled to "an absolute guarantee of the financial probity and integrity of ministers". But, the seeming lack of clarity in his evidence may return to haunt him. We must remember that at the time he was Minister of Finance so whether or not there was “cash for favours” there is certainly no appearance of transparency in these strange and undocumented transactions.

However, even if every allegation against him were true – and few really believe all of them – it all pales into insignificance against the low standards set by his predecessor, the late Charles Haughey who, in his time, pocketed 8.4 million in “donations”.

Haughey’s Minister of Justice, Ray Burke, has previously been found culpable of receiving large sums of cash and indeed having his own house and its land “donated” by Brennan and McGowan, developers who benefited from wide scale rezoning of land. Liam Lawlor, another Fianna Fail T.D. (Irish Member of Parliament) was also found to have corruptly benefited from payments from developers who had agricultural land rezoned for development, often at great cost to the public purse in providing the infrastructure.

Even squeaky clean former Prime Minister Garret FitzGerald was found to have a 320,000 pound loan from Allied Irish Bank to invest in the shares of Guinness Peat Aviation (of which he was a director) written off by the bank when the investment went wrong, as you or I would in similar circumstances. Dr. FitzGerald had previously been Prime Minister when the same bank had been bailed out to the tune of 121 million when their investment in the Insurance Corporation of Ireland went wrong.

So there is a worrying trend and history in Irish Politics which the current “imprecision” about Bertie Ahern’s finances is doing nothing to allay. The image of “hang dog” Bertie sitting in a pub wearing his trademark anorak and having “friends” more or less spontaneously organise whip rounds causes me concern.

Why you may ask? Well I often sat in Dublin pubs in my younger days complaining about my unfortunate lot. And here is the worry I have. Were my social skills so poor that my “friends” didn’t get the message or did I choose the wrong “friends”? I may never know the answer and I suspect in pubs tonight up and down the length of Ireland there may be many other Irish people not receiving spontaneous whip rounds of thousands of euros in ready cash who may also be asking themselves serious questions about their social skills and the quality of their “friends”!


Bertie's election banner on the side of Fagan's